Research

Working papers

Shadowless theocracies

 [Working paper] [Historical appendix]  

Abstract: I investigate the long-term effects of theocracy on political preferences and religiosity, exploiting a river that separated the theocratic Papal States from secular states for three centuries. To disentangle the effect of theocracy from other confounders, I propose a novel extension to geographic regression discontinuity designs, the Difference-in-Geographic Discontinuities (DIG). While religiosity and political preferences descriptively differ discontinuously at the river, the causal effect of theocracy is null. Using existing and novel datasets spanning eight centuries, I suggest that pre-existing inheritance norms affected religiosity and political preferences by increasing collectivism and social capital, thereby neutralizing the impact of theocratic institutions.


Targeting vaccine information framing to recipients' education: a randomized trial

with Lisen A. Dahlström. Winner of the Merck Investigator Studies Program grant  [Working paper]  

Abstract: We investigate targeting framed information to recipients’ backgrounds to boost vaccination uptakes. 7616 Swedish mothers stratified by education and immigration background received a leaflet on their children's upcoming HPV vaccination opportunity. The leaflet’s framing was randomized between emotional and scientific, with control units receiving an uninformative extra reminder of the same length. Mothers with compulsory schooling exposed to scientific framing increased their uptake by 5.7 percentage points (7.25\%). The effect was driven by less skeptical mothers with little previous HPV knowledge and higher engagement with the materials. Emotional framing decreased uptake by 4.8 percentage points (5.41\%) among high school-educated mothers who read more superficially and were more hesitant at baseline.

The limits and perils of gentle communication against vaccine hesitancy: an informational trial

with Leonardo Boncinelli (PI), Ennio Bilancini and Folco Panizza. 

Winner of the PRIN 2022 grant from the Italian Ministry of Education and the NextEU Generation grant "Bando 30 mesi" at the University of Florence

Part of the EcoHETE project involving several departments at the University of Florence: Statistics (Department PI: Daniele Vignoli), Psychology (Department PI: Christian Tarchi), Political Sciences (Department PI: Laura Solito)


Abstract: Motivational Interviewing (MI) is a gentle communication technique effective in doctor-patient interactions and is now recommended by the WHO to reduce vaccine hesitancy. Nevertheless, it entails high training and implementation costs. We test MI in the context of a flu vaccine video informational campaign by conducting a survey experiment on a representative sample of 8310 Italians aged above 40. MI significantly improves the informant's perception in line with theory. However, it reduces willingness to vaccinate ($-7.4\%$, equivalent to approximately 3 p.p.) and does not impact actual vaccination behavior. Causal forest analyses also reveal that despite an overall null behavioral effect, a minority who increase vaccination uptake after MI is selected in terms of worse health status, older age, and higher distrust of vaccines. Conversely, MI decreases the uptake of a minority with more vaccine-compliant positions at baseline. While MI can be helpful for specific groups who might be more used to interacting with health professionals, it could backfire when addressed to the general population: this suggests caution in pushing MI as a large-scale policy. 

Gender Quotas in Municipal Executives: reallocating public spending in Italy

with Flavia Cavallini and Olivia Masi [Working paper]


Abstract: This study investigates the effect of increasing female representation in executive positions within local governments on municipal expenditures and the provision of public social services. We leverage a 2014 reform in Italy that mandated 40\% gender quotas in the executive councils of municipalities with more than 3000 inhabitants. Introducing quotas for executives represents a novel and interesting setting, as these figures might have more influence over administration and budgeting than other council members. To isolate the impact of gender quotas from other policies active at the same population cutoff, we employ a difference-in-discontinuities approach. Our findings reveal that the policy effectively increases female representation in local governments, aligning with its objectives. Moreover, the increase in female executives shifts the composition of expenditures in favor of schools, with the budget share allocated to preschools and schools rising by 23% and 10%, respectively. This indicates that including women in executive roles can influence the allocation of municipal resources.

Work in progress

Networks, Diversity, and Migrants' Success: Evidence from the Pontine Marshes, 1932-1941 

with Frédéric Docquier, Fabio Mariani and Martin Fernandez Sanchez


Abstract: This paper examines the impact of common origin networks and diversity on migrants' economic performance, exploiting the natural experiment of the reclamation and resettlement of the Pontine Marshes in Italy (1932-1941). Approximately 4000 families were randomly assigned a plot under sharecropping and offered the option to redeem the land in 1941.  Using microdata on the universe of settlers, we find that the presence of neighbors from the same province of origin improved the chances of remaining in the Pontine Marshes until 1941 and eventually buying the land. These networks supported economic success by enhancing productivity through direct help, although we also suggest a direct role of social amenities. On the other hand, neighbors' diversity played a more limited role and benefited productivity through agricultural skill transferability, as long as same-origin networks were not reduced. 

The lifespan of people with disability before the welfare state: the role of collectivism

with Nicoletta Balbo, Danilo Bolano, Lotta Vikström, and Johan Junkka 


Abstract: This paper studies the effect of collectivistic norms on the lifespan of people with disabilities (PWD) before the advent of the modern welfare state. We focus on 770 PWD born in Sweden between 1914 and 1919, for whom we observe rich microdata covering the type of disability. Following a well-established empirical strategy, we exploit late XIXth-century mass outmigration and 1913 US immigration quotas as a source of exogenous variation in the level of collectivism. We document that mass outmigration increased collectivism also in our setting, and find that PWD from villages that experienced higher levels of cumulative outmigration lived significantly longer. The effect is driven by people with intellectual and psychiatric disabilities who were institutionalized more. In a period when these disabilities implied isolation and mistreatment, the demand for proto-welfare services induced by collectivism improved life conditions, hence the duration of life. 

Non-intact Families and Children's Vaccination Coverage: Evidence from Italy 

with Veronica Dorgali, Raffaele Guetto, Valentina Tocchioni and Daniele Vignoli

Funded by the NextEU Generation grant "Bando 30 mesi" at the University of Florence

Part of the EcoHETE project involving several departments at the University of Florence: Statistics (Department PI: Daniele Vignoli), Psychology (Department PI: Christian Tarchi), Political Sciences (Department PI: Laura Solito)

Other publications

Abstract: Creativity and grit are widely recognized as vital components for the success and prosperity of individuals, even more so for younger people who will have to deal with the complex challenges connected to the digital era. Yet, whether these skills can be learnt or are innate traits is still subject to debate, which is further complicated by the difficulty of defining and, in turn, assessing these concepts. In this study, we challenge the idea that creativity and grit cannot be learnt and show that creative pedagogy activities, such as those offered by FabLabs, are powerful tools to enhance these non-cognitive skills. We conduct a pilot randomized controlled trial in which 710 students from five Italian high schools are randomly assigned to creative STEM courses. The courses are delivered by FabLabs, small-scale workshops that offer access to tools for digital fabrication and employ a hands-on pedagogical approach expected to impact students' creativity and grit positively. Assignment to the courses is at the class level: only students in classes randomly selected to join the Fablab activities can participate, and they may decide whether to enrol or not on a voluntary basis. We address noncompliance by adopting an instrumental variable approach. We use two modalities to measure creativity: a self-assessment through the Short Scale of Creative Self and an assessment made by an independent expert using an index of creativity developed by the authors. While the effect on self-assessed creativity is not significant, results show that the external, independent assessment of students' creativity can capture a significant effect of Fablabs' courses. It also emerges that FabLab activities have a positive significant effect on students' grit, measured through the Duckworth scale. The encouraging results obtained for a relatively small sample of students should prompt a replication of the experiment on a broader scale.  

Crowdsourcing hypothesis tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results

Psychological Bulletin (2020) [paper]

(Large consortium) Landy, J. F., Jia, M. L., Ding, I. L., Viganola, D., Tierney, W., Dreber, A., ..


Abstract: To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer five original research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from 2 separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete 1 version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: Materials from different teams rendered statistically significant effects in opposite directions for 4 of 5 hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = −0.37 to + 0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for 2 hypotheses and a lack of support for 3 hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, whereas considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.